Gold ended this week near $4,710, down roughly 3% over five sessions from Monday’s open near $4,755. The Hormuz crisis deepened dramatically — Trump ordered the Navy to shoot Iranian mining boats, a third US aircraft carrier arrived in the Gulf, two cargo ships were seized, and oil prices surged. Gold fell. And yet, if you look at what central banks around the world are doing, they are not selling. They are still buying.
This is the single most important divergence in the gold market right now. Retail sentiment, shaped by news headlines and short-term price charts, sees gold falling 10% since the war began and reads it as a danger signal. Institutional buyers — sovereign wealth funds, central banks, long-duration asset managers — see the same price and read it as an opportunity. The reason they read it differently is time horizon. A central bank adding gold to its reserves is not worried about this week’s 3% dip. It is worried about the next decade’s dollar stability, the credibility of Western fiscal policy, and the concentration of global trade risk in a single chokepoint waterway.
The supply picture has not changed. Gold mine output grows at 1–2% per year. No new mine can be brought online in under ten years. Import tariffs in several markets have added premiums above the spot price. The all-time high of $5,595 was set just three months ago. J.P. Morgan forecasts $5,055 by year-end. Goldman Sachs targets $6,000 by end 2027.
The Federal Reserve meets April 28–29. If Chair Powell sounds even slightly accommodative on future rate cuts, the dollar softens and gold recovers. For families building wealth in gold, the lesson from this week is the same lesson every week: buy the dip, not the panic.
24K today: approximately $151.44/gram | 22K: $138.82/gram
